[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N35W EQUATOR AT 44W
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 17W-23W...AND FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SE GEORGIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE GULF. NARROW CLOUD LINES ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THESE ONSHORE WINDS. ALOFT...A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS AND THE SE CONUS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP
OF THE AREA PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS
THAT REDUCES THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE OUT
OF THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SW
U.S. IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS QUIET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MORE CONCENTRATED NORTH
OF THE ABC ISLANDS...AND NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA.
SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS SEEN INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A
DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN A SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE W
ATLC AND THE COLOMBIAN OR PANAMANIAN LOW IS PRODUCING FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG RIDGE ALONG 30N WITH SEVERAL 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERS
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
37W/38W FROM 21N-26N. THIS TROUGH IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER
LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
CONFIRMED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ALOFT...A
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A JET-STREAM
BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY THIS
JET FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE AFRICAN COAST.

$$
GR




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