[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH
OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 54W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...SOUTHEAST OF 10N60W
11N55W 16N40W BEYOND 20N20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE REDUCES
THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF CALIFORNIA
AND MEXICO. THIS DIGGING TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHY CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W...FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 16N BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND
70W...FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA...AND SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W ENTERING CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO WESTERN PANAMA. THE AREA IS CAPPED BY
ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N79W BEYOND 32N75W. PASSING
THROUGH 31N76W TO 29N79W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG
A RIDGE FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 31N28W TO 31N44W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 30N67W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A CENTRAL-TO-
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 29N29W 26N33W 22N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N37W
24N39W TO 20N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 31W AND 40W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS 33N55W.

$$
MT




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