[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 07N12W 04N41W 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO
23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FUNNELING DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST
WEST OF FRONT. A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING INTO THE
CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT
DISSIPATING TODAY...WITH 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO N CENTRAL FLORIDA ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH. FROM TUE INTO WED...A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DIGS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO VIRGINIA...PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING THU IN THE
CENTRAL GULF AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 27N60W IS
MAINTAINING GENERALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT NOTED NEAR THE
COLOMBIAN COAST ON A 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOTED. TRADES
INCREASE STARTING LATE TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE
BAHAMAS...BUT DIMINISH AGAIN BY WED AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

ATLC...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINS A DEEP LAYER
BAROCLINIC LOW PRES SYSTEM DIGGING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AZORES...WITH TROUGH TRAILING SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE GUYANA COAST TO MOROCCO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 32N20W TO 17N34W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS INDICATED
ON SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A COLD
FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH WED...BUT REMAIN N OF 25N. A SECOND STRONGER
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE WED

$$
CHRISTENSEN





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net