[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W 04N29W 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS AND 75 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM 0100Z SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FUNNELING DOWN THE
MEXICAN COAST WEST OF FRONT. A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH IS
SHIFTING INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RESULTS IN THE
FRONT DISSIPATING TODAY...WITH 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES
SHIFTING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO N CENTRAL FLORIDA
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. FROM TUE INTO WED...A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH DIGS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO VIRGINIA...PUSHING
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND
WEAKENING THU IN THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 27N60W IS
MAINTAINING GENERALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT NOTED NEAR THE
COLOMBIAN COAST ON A 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOTED. TRADES
INCREASE STARTING LATE TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE
BAHAMAS...BUT DIMINISH AGAIN BY WED AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

ATLC...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINS A DEEP LAYER
BAROCLINIC LOW PRES SYSTEM DIGGING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AZORES...WITH TROUGH TRAILING SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE GUYANA COAST TO MOROCCO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 32N20W TO 17N34W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS INDICATED
ON SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A COLD
FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH WED...BUT REMAIN N OF 25N. A SECOND STRONGER
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE WED

$$
CHRISTENSEN



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