[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-22W
...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO W OF 98W WHILE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA. A 1009 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 76W-77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AT
12N67W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-84W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO
24N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1015
MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N44W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS ALONG 15N50W 8N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 44W-51W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-80W. A 70-90 KT
UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 32N57W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 45W WITH
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N40W
TO 24N63W WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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