[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N30W 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 16W-29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS NE
BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
TRANSITIONS IN TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM 21N90W NW TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES STREAMING ACROSS THE NW GULF THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CONUS.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE W OF
90W AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD ACROSS
FLORIDA AND WRN CUBA. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
FAR NW GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY...
COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED NEAR
12N66W ON TOP OF BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA FROM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE NRN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 20N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ALSO...CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
LINES OF SURFACE CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ARE
FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 70W-86W...MAINLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 55W...FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
RESIDES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N54W AND
EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 29N60W 25N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG 31N56W 25N65W 21N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY N
OF 23N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N31W 18N33W
10N39W. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
21N34W TO 15N35W. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-27N
BETWEEN 26W-34W. A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 26N43W WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER. ANOTHER 1015 MB LOW IS
FURTHER S NEAR 17N44W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W/51W
FROM 9N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 47W-52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE RUNS FROM
THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 12N66W TO BEYOND 32N46W IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...SPREADING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN
40W-85W.

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net