[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N25W 5N40W INTO N BRAZIL
NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 17W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO A 1018 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N95W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W TO THE W GULF NEAR 22N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 91W-96W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM S OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF
DUE TO A 1025 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS THAT IS MOVING E. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF
S OF 25N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF. EXPECT...THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH DOWN AS A COLD FRONT AND EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT THE LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE SEA. A 1010 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 82W-83W.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
TRINIDAD FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 60W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 58W PRODUCING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN 58W-90W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF 15N AND W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1002 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 34N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N46W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW TO 23N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 40W-44W. ANOTHER SMALL 1016 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N35W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW TO
21N35W 17N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
33W-40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 25N AND W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN
50W-70W. A 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS N OF 27N BETWEEN
55W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN E OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N23W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THIS HIGH TO
7N50W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE SE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N57W TO CENTRAL CUBA
WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA




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