[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N25W 5N40W INTO N BRAZIL
NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W TO
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE W GULF NEAR 24N97W. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO A
1017 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER
THE N GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE N GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO START TO PUSH DOWN AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXTEND FROM CUBA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE SEA. A 1010 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 82W-84W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 60W PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN 60W-90W. SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF 15N AND W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1022 HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N56W. A
1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N45W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 20N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
25N-30N BETWEEN 40W-44W. ANOTHER SMALL 1016 MB LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR 26N35W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N23W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-70W. A
90 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN E
OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR
6N23W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THIS HIGH TO 7N50W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE SE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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