[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N12W TO 5N24W 4N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...TO 1S52W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT CUTS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING THE CURRENT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N80W
TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W TO 24N90W AND 23N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE NORTH OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
30N80W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEYOND
32N77W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS GALE WIND EVENT
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
LAST 48 HOURS NOW IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W
TO CUBA TO 19N80W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N83W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA
TO CUBA...AND MOVING ACROSS CUBA...BETWEEN 77W AND 85W.
A SURFACE TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 64W AND
65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM
15N TO 19N...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N69W TO A 1019 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...
ACROSS CUBA TO 20N78W. NASSAU REPORTED 2.12 INCHES OF RAIN...
AND FREEPORT REPORTED 1.30 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS BLOWING RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM JUST NORTH
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BEYOND 32N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N78W 26N75W BEYOND 32N71W. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 27N63W BEYOND
32N57W. A LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS IS
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS
MASS OF CYCLONIC SWIRLING TO 18N45W AND THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR
8N59W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST
OF 20N38W 10N50W 9N60W TO 30N AND 64W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 29N36W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH
OF IT. A SECOND 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N31W.
A TROUGH CURVES FROM THE 32N31W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N29W
20N34W TO 10N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 29W AND 44W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N41W 20N30W 25N24W BEYOND
32N24W...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE.

$$
MT





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