[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W
AND 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 21W...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN
29W AND 30W...AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
2N TO 8N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT CUTS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING THE CURRENT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH 30N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N81W TO THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 20N90W. OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WEST OF 74W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
LAST 48 HOURS NOW IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO 20N80W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 15N83W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 82W AND 83W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. MORE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND 82W...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
CURVE TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W.
OTHER BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 15N TO PUERTO
RICO MOVING FROM 60W TO 68W AT THIS TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N71W TO A FRONTAL WAVE
NEAR 26N76W...ACROSS SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 20N80W. NASSAU REPORTED
2.12 INCHES OF RAIN...AND FREEPORT REPORTED 1.30 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS BLOWING
RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N78W 26N73W BEYOND 32N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 26N63W BEYOND 32N56W.
A LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS IS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS MASS OF CYCLONIC
SWIRLING TO 18N47W AND THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N59W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST OF 20N38W
10N50W 9N60W TO 30N AND 64W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 33N36W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH OF IT.
A SECOND 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N31W. A TROUGH
CURVES FROM THE 30N31W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N29W 20N34W
TO 10N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N43W 17N35W 25N26W BEYOND
32N25W...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE.

$$
MT





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