[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 81.4W JUST W OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA AT 21/2100 UTC. FAY IS MOVING WEST AT 4 KT
AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER OUTFLOW
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FAY IS MOST PRONOUNCED N OF THE CENTER.
OVERALL CONVECTION IS HEAVIEST E OF THE CENTER OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WITH RAIN BANDS EXTENDING S TO BISCAYNE BAY MIAMI.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N
BETWEEN 76W-82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
28N-33N BETWEEN 82W-85W. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF
FLORIDA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ W OF THE
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NRN
PART OF THE WAVE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

A SMALL 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N49W
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 79W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
JAMAICA AND E CUBA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 76W-80W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 13N30W 11N40W 13N50W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 18W-21W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S.FAY IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A 1017 MB HIGH HAS FORMED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS E OF
98W AND S OF 32N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 97W-100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDS E TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 90W. OUTFLOW FROM
T.S. FAY EXTENDS N TO NORTH CAROLINA AND S TO THE NORTH BAHAMAS.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH FAY AND MORE CONVECTION OVER E
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
OTHERWISE FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER
PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 73W-83W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND
GUATEMALA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 77W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FAR W ATLC IS T.S. FAY WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINFALL LOCATED OFF THE NERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE U.S. COAST N OF 26N AND W OF 76W...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-32N FROM W AFRICA TO 70W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
23N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N28W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND T.S. FAY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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