[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.9N 80.5W WHICH IS ALONG
THE E COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA OR ABOUT 4 NM NORTHWEST OF
SEBASTIAN FLORIDA AND ABOUT 13 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA AT 20/0600 UTC MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS
ELONGATED E/W PROVIDING OUTFLOW OVER THE W ATLC TO 70W AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO 85W. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY INLAND OVER E FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH
COUNTY TO FLAGLER COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 25N80W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
TO 27N78W AND FROM 27N30N BETWEEN 75W-TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA.
T.S. FAY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
SHORTLY WITH A GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK FAY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND
SOME GRADUAL RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES OVER THE
ATLC WATERS LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 38W S OF 17N WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N DRIFTING W NEAR 5 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION S OF 15N WITH A WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 12.5N BETWEEN
40W-42W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 38W HAS BEEN HELD BACK DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE BUT IT
APPEARS THE WAVE HAS LEFT THE LOW BEHIND AND WILL BE RELOCATED
CLOSER TO 46W AT 20/0600 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS TILTED FROM 20N65W
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 11N26W 13N36W 9N50W 7N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 27W-33W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 9N38W TO 6N43W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN OF T.S. FAY IN THE GULF OFF
THE W COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 28N E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
SE OVER N TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE W
COAST OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ALONG NEAR 23N THEN IS
BEING DRAWN NE TO OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM ALABAMA TO
LOUISIANA. THIS IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM
VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS AND WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA LUZ TO TUXPAN. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE BELIZE
GIVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EASTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH SE UPPER
FLOW W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
INTO THE E PACIFIC JUST N OF PANAMA BURT IS NOT GENERATING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER HAITI AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-74W. THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE W ATLC AGAIN THIS MORNING IS THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM
31N64W TO 21N65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 27N67W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N47W WITH A
WEAKER UPPER LOW NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N21W. BOTH OF
THESE LOWS ARE BENIGN FEATURES. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT
DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 70W WITH A
WEAKNESS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N
OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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