[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 1N18W 2N32W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 2S50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 10W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 30W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE N GULF N OF
25N INTO THE W ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING OUT OF
THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W ACROSS
W CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN AND THE SE GULF S OF A LINE
FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N92W. A SMOKE PLUME INDICATED BY
NOAA FIRE DETECTION COVERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE NE COAST FROM
SE LOUISIANA ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE W ATLC WITH
A DENSE AREA SHOWING ON RADAR COVERING THE FAR NE GULF N OF 27N
E OF 85W. OTHERWISE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO OVER THE YUCATAN JUST N OF
BELIZE TO NW GUATEMALA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST W OF JAMAICA EXTENDING ALONG
78W/79W FROM 14N-20N PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTENING DATA S OF S OF
11N FROM OVER COLOMBIA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG
NE TO E TRADE WINDS COVER THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
EXCEPTION NW OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E
US EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION 32N72W EXTENDING ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W CONTINUING INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND
32N62W BRINGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS INDICATED BY LIGHTENING DATA ARE BEING GENERATED OVER S
FLORIDA AND CUBA E OF THE FRONT MOVING TO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
E OF THE FRONT TO 55W WITH A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N62W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N47W AND A
1000 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 35N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH 32N39W S ALONG 28N41W THEN SW TO 20N54W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 24W
EXTENDING TO 31N WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 25N25W TO 31N29W.

$$
WALLACE




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