[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N16W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 26W...1S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
3N BETWEEN 6W AND 10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 26W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THROUGH WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS FRONT EXITS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR 27N97W CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INLAND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO BERMUDA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW EXISTS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH WESTERN CUBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS COASTAL YUCATAN AND WESTERN CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD TO BERMUDA.
THIS IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN US SEABOARD. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
32N74W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE FRONT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCATED NEAR 28N64W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER EXIST IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 31N BETWEEN 52W AND 71W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 48W BETWEEN 14N TO 29N. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N41W 25N44W TO 22N52W AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS POSITIONED NEAR 31N31W TO 25N24W. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
SCATTERED MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH THIS
FEATURE. INLAND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N11W OVER
THE WESTERN SAHARA IS CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 20
TO 25 KT WINDS ALONG COASTAL WESTERN AFRICA AND ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN/GR


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