[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282252
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W...ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN
8W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. AS
OF 21Z...THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N83W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N86W 22N92W TO NEAR 18N94W IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS UP TO 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE SW GULF S OF
25N AND W OF 94W. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE DURING
THE NEXT 12 HRS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SE OF THE GULF WITHIN
24 HRS. SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE PACIFIC
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF. THE W GULF REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A 1022 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SHALLOW CONVECTION N OF 15N. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE REGION. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS VENEZUELA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 15N IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A 1009 MB SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SPIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THIS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE ATLC W OF 78W. FARTHER EAST...A 1022 MB
SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N67W IS MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC
HIGH IS TRANSPORTING PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT...NOW DEPICTED BY A SFC TROUGH...ENTER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N42W AND EXTEND SW TO NEAR 24N51W. A BAND
OF SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN
120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
AZORES...MADEIRA...AND TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAIR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN ATLC.


$$
WADDINGTON



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