[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM EQ-6N
BETWEEN 4W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 23W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A
1032 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE MEXICAN PLATEAU PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD TO
JUST EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NEARING THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST BY LATE EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIAN
COAST NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND ALONG 75W TO BEYOND
31N. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS
VENEZUELA OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF 15N IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG COASTAL COLOMBIA AND
THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N71W. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 28N67W. THIS IS PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE U.S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM 30N42W 26N47W TO 22N52W. AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 39N25W TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER INTERIOR AFRICA.

$$
HUFFMAN/GR


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