[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 9W-13W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
31N72W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM THIS HIGH TO S
TEXAS NEAR 26N97W.  10-15 KT SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO RETURN FLOW.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER INLAND TEXAS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
95W-99W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 85W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT... A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL ALSO BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.  A 1008
MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 71W-73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE SEA.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA W OF 62W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER OVER FLORIDA AND THE NW ATLANTIC.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 26N50W 20N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N TO BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 39W-44W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 25W-50W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 15N AND E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA.  IN THE TROPICS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 7N50W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA










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