[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 262316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 45W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N. AS
OF 21Z...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THE CONVECTIVE REGION FROM
THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W TO NEAR 27N96W. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
GULF LATE SUN. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE WESTERN GULF BY
MON. A SECOND SFC TROUGH DEPICTING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT RUNS
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. LIGHT N WINDS
ARE W OF THE SFC TROUGH. A SFC HIGH IN THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER W OF 75W. A SFC TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO NEAR 11N65W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
75W...MAINLY N OF 13N. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
1008 MB SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA IS SPINNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BETWEEN 68W-74W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
MOSTLY CLEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STATIONARY 1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N74W. FARTHER
EAST...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N50W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 25N54W TO 20N60W. A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 39W-59W. W TO NW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND S TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SFC HIGH NEAR THE AZORES COVERS
THE EASTERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 7N51W.
SWLY FLOW ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IS SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

$$
WADDINGTON









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