[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 48W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 3W-9W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 11W-14W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-30W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N76W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N97W.  10-20 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE
MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 96W-99W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER E TEXAS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 95W-100W DUE TO A COLD
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF
N OF 24N AND W OF 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF.  EXPECT... SELY SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL GET A SECONDARY
PUSH AND WILL BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER W OF 75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  A 1007 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-75W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA.  CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM
SRN COSTA RICA TO GUADELOUPE.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W
WHILE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER OVER FLORIDA AND THE NW ATLANTIC.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO 30N54W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES SW TO 24N57W 20N62W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 48W-53W.
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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