[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 39W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N W OF 35W AND
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SFC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO 20 KT S OF
25N...COVER THE REGION. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER IS BEING ENHANCE
BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A FEW SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THIS LINE
INTO THE FAR NE GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA.UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
INLAND OVER TEXAS IS CREEPING INTO THE NW GULF. EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO MOVE SE AND ENTER THE GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER NEAR-ZONAL FLOW
AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE AREA. THE LAST
REMAINING VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS
E OF 70W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. FRESH TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MAINTAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG 30N63W 25N70W TO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N73W. THIS TROUGH IS
TILTED WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES LYING TO THE EAST. A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 32N54W TO 26N60W.
A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH...EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM AHEAD
OF A LINE FROM 30N52W 25N56W 20N63W AND OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N67W. EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING THE ATLC RELATIVELY
CLEAR W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
COVERS THE EAST ATLC...KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS SURROUNDING A WEAK SFC TROUGH
FROM 31N32W TO 26N39W.

$$
WADDINGTON




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