[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N11W 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130 NM OF THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN
3N AND THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 210 NM N AND 140NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
29W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF THIS
MORNING. AS OF 03Z...THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE STRAIGHTS OF
FLORIDA ALONG THE NW TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT RE-EMERGES IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W AND CONTINUES WNW TO NEAR 22N96W. THE
FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY WITH THE ONLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN
THE GULF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE N TO NW WINDS 15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY WITH SE RETURN FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE NW WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS
EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH RESULTS IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 09Z...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT JUST CLIPS THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING SE INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE
WINDS 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NW AND INCREASE
TO 20 KT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SE CUBA NEAR
21N78W ALONG 18N82W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. LOW CLOUDS AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES.
FARTHER EAST...A SFC TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE AXIS AND N OF 14N E OF THE
AXIS. SAT IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE
MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
THIS TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...A FLATTENED
UPPER RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE.

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE W ATLC IS DEFINED BY THE EXISTENCE
OF TWO COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGER OF THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N70W AND CONTINUES SW OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N75W BEFORE CROSSING OVER CUBA NEAR 22N77W. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDS THE BOUNDARY WITHIN 80 NM OF THE NE
COAST OF CUBA. AS OF 03Z...A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
31N73 AND CONTINUES OVER THE NW BAHAMAS ENTERING THE STRAIGHTS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE AREA N OF 27N...WITH LIGHTING DATA INDICATING
NUMEROUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE
LATER TODAY TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 30N78W.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A BROAD DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 29N42W. PATCHY
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS....AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 9N34W ENHANCING
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. WLY FLOW N OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND S OF
AN UPPER TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM S AMERICA TO AFRICA BETWEEN 11N-18N.

$$
CANGIALOSI/WADDINGTON



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