[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO 1S49W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180NM N AND 120NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COOLER AIRMASS IS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS AIRMASS IS BEING REINFORCED BY
A SECONDARY DRY FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR FT MYERS TO THE SW GULF
ALONG 27N82W 23N87W 22N94W. THESE FRONTS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. BUOY AND SHIP OBS ARE SHOWING N
TO NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINING THE COOL
AIR. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER
THE SE U.S. TRIGGERED BY THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY CUT OFF. HOWEVER...LITTLE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING INTO THE GULF WATERS AS UPPER CONFLUENCE
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE N OF 25N. LOOKING AHEAD A
DAY OR SO...HIGH PRES OVER NE TEXAS WILL SHIFT E ALLOWING THE
FLOW TO TURN ELY OVER THE WRN WATERS...MODIFYING THE
AIRMASS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS SUPPORTING A LATE
SEASON STRONG FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO SRN BELIZE ALONG 22N79W
16N89W. LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEYOND
THE CLOUD COVER IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH OBS IN THE NRN YUCATAN
REPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70'S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50'S F. THE
OTHER INTERESTING LOW-LEVEL FEATURE IS A WWD MOVING TROUGH
CENTERED BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE AXIS AND N OF 14N E OF THE AXIS. SAT
IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE MOST
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. COMPUTER
MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING NWD
MERGING THE FRONT. ALOFT...A FAIRLY FLAT PATTERN EXISTS WITH A
HIGH CENTER OVER SRN NICARAGUA AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN
CARIB...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE.

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E LOCATED
NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. AN
AREA OF LOW PRES HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29N72W AT 21Z.
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
NEAR THE CUBAN COAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW
PORTION FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING STRENGTHENING LOW PRES IN THIS REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER HIGH PRES SYSTEM DOMINATES THE PATTERN
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SFC CENTER IS ANALYZED 1025 MB NEAR
29N46W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE FAR E ATLC THROUGH THE
CANARY ISLANDS THEN STRETCHES FAR WWD TO 22N47W. THIS UPPER
FEATURE IS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A BENIGN REMNANT FRONT
FROM 32N22W TO 28N25W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS....AN UPPER HIGH IS
SITUATED NEAR 9N35W ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI/WALTON




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