[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N13W 2N17W 1N26W 1N43W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W TO 1S50W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 13W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
11W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
AND INTO THE W GULF W OF 93W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N87W TO AN UPPER LOW
JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 24N85W CONTINUING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N GUATEMALA. A SECOND
WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA JUST N OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO 25N84W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 81W-83W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA S OF 27N E OF 84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF W OF A LINE
FROM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 26N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 21N86W. LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKING ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS AND OVER THE NE GULF E OF 87W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 84W GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N ACROSS W CUBA BETWEEN 81W-96W.
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN NW
OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS THE AREA E OF 83W AND NW OF A LINE FROM S NICARAGUA
ALONG 16N73W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THAT AREA
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF
70W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 72W WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N74W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A PAIR OF 1012 MB
LOWS ARE NEAR 30N77W,,,MOVING NE...AND A SECOND NEAR 28N78W...
MOVING S...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW LOW
ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 27N W
OF 78W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR
25N61W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N61W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E
ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 20W-50W AND A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR
34N27W AND A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION WITH A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W TO 28N27W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO 24N34W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 16N33W. BROAD
E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS AND IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10W.

$$
WALLACE



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