[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N18W 1N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 1S46W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
11W-17W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE
EQUATOR TO JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 17W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US INTO THE GULF N
OF 21N WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY TO AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN NEAR 24N89W. A SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N GUATEMALA
MOVING SE. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OFF THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS JUST S OF THE MAINLAND AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
SE GULF FROM CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN 80W-87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA ALONG 25N89W TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W GIVING THAT
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE E/W
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 81W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A RESULT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE
FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA ALONG 16N74W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LEAVING THAT AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE/
STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 16N E OF 70W TO OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 74W WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N77W OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N78W. A WEAK 1010 MB
LOW IS NEAR 29N78W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA TO JUST S OF THE MAINLAND AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER CUBA TO
30N W OF 78W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 25N61W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N61W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 20W-50W AND A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW NEAR 35N31W AND A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE
REGION WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W TO
30N20W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A PAIR
OF 1016 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 18N39W AND 20N21W. BROAD E/W UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS AND IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
FAR E ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 12W.

$$
WALLACE




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