[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 1N23W 2N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 1S50W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR 3N E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 6W-8W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 8W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING OVER
MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SE US INTO THE FAR W ATLC. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS THE
E GULF S OF A FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES.
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
REMAINS INLAND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS BANKING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS N OF 26N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO OVER SE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT
TO IMPACT THE GULF WILL EXIT THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PERSISTENT NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO
11N BETWEEN 72W-83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 69W-79W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N82W TO 12N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 77W-84W.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS USHERING
IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W TO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT JUST INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N72W TO
INLAND OVER THE SE US JUST N OF THE FLORIA/GEORGIA BORDER AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N FROM
74W-80W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
W OF 35W NARROWING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N54W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W-77W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN
67W-77W TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS MOVING THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER SE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 37W TO OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N23W EXTENDING S TO 25N25W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 21N FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO SW
AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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