[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030446
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N13W 3N26W 2N32W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO 3S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
E OF 11W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 7N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
25W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING FROM
OVER MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SE US INTO THE FAR W ATLC.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS
THE E GULF S OF A FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST
STATES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT REMAINS INLAND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS
BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS W OF 93W WITH NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY INDICATED. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO OVER SE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT FRONT
TO IMPACT THE GULF WILL EXIT THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PERSISTENT NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO
11N BETWEEN 72W-82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-80W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 79W FROM 12W-20N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 76W-82W.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS
USHERING IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
73W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION TO
OVER THE SE US AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE REGION N OF 28N FROM 73W-78W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 30W NARROWING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N53W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
71W-77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
21N TO OVER HISPANIOLA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN CUBA
TO OVER THE BAHAMAS TO OVER SE FLORIDA AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 40W TO
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING SSW TO 23N30W. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN
THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N FROM THE E
CARIBBEAN TO SW AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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