[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 320 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W...ANALYZED 1008 MB...HAS
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
TSTMS ACTIVITY STRETCHED OUT TO THE NE OF THE LOW FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 66W-69W AND ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS.  LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING.  THE SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LONG WAVELENGTH TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 23N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT.  THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE
MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH ABOUT A 15 DEG LONGITUDE AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THIS WAVE IS IMPRESSIVELY LARGE AND WELL DEFINED...DEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE
ITCZ.  THE WEAK 1012 MB LOW THAT WAS ALONG 40W YESTERDAY HAS
MOVED E TO 12N37W AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED PART OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 69W S
OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 63W-69W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER INLAND VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 65W-72W.

THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE AND
EASTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA THAT COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RE-DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 13N35W 10N50W 8N55W
10N62W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 13W-16W.
FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
12W-21W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 92W-96W.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE SE
GULF...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-85W.
FURTHER S... INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W DUE TO THE
REMNANTS OF FELIX.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 20N97W.  EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE E
GULF...AND S FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE AND
EASTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W.  SEE ABOVE.  THE W CARIBBEAN HAS
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 78W-84W.  FURTHER E... A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM FELIX IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN
84W-92W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N70W MOVING W.  EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W MOSTLY DUE TO
FELIX.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W.  SEE
ABOVE.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N41W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF
THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N58W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER S OVER
THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 15N50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA




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