[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
9N14W 6N20W 2N31W 1N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1N50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN
10W AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 60W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N99W. THIS FEATURE ADDS TO THE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY BY HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. ALMOST ALL THE
PRECIPITATION IS OVER LAND. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO
FROM 18N NORTHWARD BEYOND EAST OF 90W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 90W
NORTH OF 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE FLORIDA-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF
21N WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N87W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N77W. CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W/79W FROM THE WATERS WEST OF
JAMAICA SOUTHWARD FROM 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE FOR VENEZUELA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 69W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
THE PERSISTENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 33N45W TO
27N47W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STATIONARY
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N24W TO 18N37W AND
15N41W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE PERSISTENT
CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT.

$$
MT




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