[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 2N25W 2N35W 5N50W 4N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AFFECTING COASTAL
AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 3N-12N E OF 15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE IS WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-10N W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RIDGING FROM THE ATLC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SFC PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 10-20
KT ELY FLOW THAT BENDS MORE SE IN THE NW PORTION. THESE WINDS
ARE PRODUCING MODERATE ELY WIND WAVES/SWELL FOR THE
AREA...LARGEST IN THE MIDDLE GULF S OF 27N AND ALSO IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS TO BACK OFF A NOTCH...SEE
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER MIAOFFNT4 FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N THROUGH THE WRN GULF ALONG 93W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S
THROUGH WRN TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A SWATH OF
MOISTURE N OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-97W. TEXAS RADAR
IMAGERY...LIGHTNING DATA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY N OF 24N BETWEEN
94W-97W.  VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER
THE ERN GULF...WITH UPPER NW FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF SFC TROUGHS DOMINATE THE WRN CARIB. THE FIRST IS
BETWEEN WRN CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG 22N84W 14N86W THAT HAS A
1011 MB LOW ATTACHED NEAR 18.5N86.5W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NW CARIB N OF 16N W OF 82W. UW-CIMSS
SHEAR ANALYSIS DEPICTS 20-40KT OF WLY SHEAR OVER THIS
AREA...WHICH IS PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM GETTING VERY
DEEP. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT WITH THE
TROUGHING IN THE SW PORTION. THIS SECOND TROUGH IS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA ALONG 18N78W 9N82W. A 1009MB
SFC LOW IS ATTACHED NEAR 12N81W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE LOW IN THE NW PORTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS
THE YUCATAN WHILE THE LOW IN THE SW PORTION TO MOVE SLOWLY NE.
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN
70W-81W. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING SW FROM THE WRN ATLC AND AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIB. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. MORE TYPICAL MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME TO DOMINATE THE
ERN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON THE SW PORTION OF THE
AZORES HIGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB SFC HIGH OFF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N73W IS INTERACTING
WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT
15-25KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE SFC
TROUGHING...ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...IS HELPING TO
SUPPORT THE MOISTURE RICH REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS BETWEEN 50W-75W. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE OLD FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA AND MOVE IT NE. THE
E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1032MB HIGH JUST W
OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N32W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT
TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 8N E OF 55W. AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING MUCH MORE THAN PATCHES OF CIRRUS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH EARLY
WEEK.

$$
WILLIS




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