[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 7N20W 6N26W 4N40W 3N50W...TO 4N53W IN FRENCH GUIANA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N10W 6N20W 6N30W 3N40W 4N37W
4N50W 8N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA OF THE U.S.A. REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N92W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM 26N TO 27N...TO 27N105W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
CUTS ACROSS MEXICO FROM 27N105W BEYOND 31N110W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND THE TEXAS
COAST. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 27N WEST
84W MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 23N WEST
OF 86W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 120W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 29N75W...PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS 28N76W TO ANDROS ISLAND TO CUBA
NEAR 22N79W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 16N84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 16N TO CUBA NEAR 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N78W TO 12N81W
TO 15N81W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
10.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND FROM THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA COASTS TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W JUST NORTH OF THE
GULF OF URABA. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED
TO THE ITCZ. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND
NICARAGUA. BROAD AND DRY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 29N75W...PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS 28N76W TO ANDROS ISLAND TO CUBA
NEAR 22N79W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N84W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 24N
BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N62W 25N65W
26N69W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N49W TO 19N54W AND 16N55W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N43W TO 24N50W TO 20N60W AND 20N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 24N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N54W TO
BERMUDA TO 30N75W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
32N22W TO 23N25W TO 14N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N32W TO 22N37W TO 15N39W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
TRAVELS FROM 8N40W TO THE EAST OF THE 32N22W 10N44W TROUGH...
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA.

$$
MT


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