[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

10N12W 7N20W 6N27W 4N40W 3N50W...TO 4N53W IN FRENCH GUIANA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 6N20W 5N30W 4N37W
2N42W 3N50W...AND SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA OF THE U.S.A. REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N92W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. A STATIONARY
FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS FROM THE
LOUISIANA COAST TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO 27N100W IN MEXICO.
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO
BEYOND 30N108W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 84W AND THE TEXAS COAST. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AWAY FROM THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 86W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF
120W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N75W...PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM ANDROS ISLAND
TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR
20N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 9N76W TO 12N79W TO 17N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND JUST OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST ALONG 83W/84W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 78W AND
80W WITH THE ITCZ. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
INTERIOR COSTA RICA BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH PANAMA AND 85W.
BROAD AND DRY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND
NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N75W...
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N77W TO ANDROS ISLAND TO CUBA NEAR
22N79W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 23N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N74W 27N69W
24N66W 21N64W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N50W TO 20N54W AND 15N55W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N42W TO 24N50W TO 20N60W AND 20N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 19N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N55W TO BERMUDA
TO 30N75W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N23W
TO 25N27W TO 15N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO
23N38W TO 14N42W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TRAVELS
FROM 8N40W TO THE EAST OF THE 32N22W 10N44W TROUGH...
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA.

$$
MT


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