[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 4N16W 4N37W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 12W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-9W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 17W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT
THE AREA FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND GULF INTO THE W ATLC
BRINGING IS DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE INLAND OVER E TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS INLAND OVER THE SE US GIVING THE FAR NE GULF COAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF 86W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
W GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF REMAINS SHOWER FREE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE
SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT
SMOKE NOW COVERS THE N GULF FROM NE MEXICO TO CUBA AND INCLUDES
E TEXAS...ALL OF LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...S MISSISSIPPI...S
ALABAMA...AND MOST OF GEORGIA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAK FRONT
DIPPING ACROSS THE N GULF STARTING ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 18N W OF 70W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
18N82W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE ITCZ
AXIS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS GENERATING GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN
80W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS BUT REMAINS SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N71W ALONG
30N77W TO OVER THE SE US NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA NEAR 32N67W
SSW ALONG 28N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 63W FROM 23N-29N. ALTHOUGH
SMOKY CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT
CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COVERING THE REGION SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FT LAUDERDALE TO JACKSONVILLE. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ALONG
24N56W TO 32N48W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W ATLC AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N FROM 56W TO
THE WESTERN MOST SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W S TO 18N28W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W. DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W
AND THE TROPICAL ATLC NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 6N-15N E OF 40W AND FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN
40W-58W...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE





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