[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N16W 1N35W EQ50W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 5N-8N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 16W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF 4N FROM 16W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N FROM 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND GULF INTO THE W ATLC
BRINGING IS DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
INLAND OVER THE SE US GIVING THE N GULF COAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOUISIANA TO ACROSS
THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 28N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS
NEAR 29N96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS SHOWER FREE.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT
ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA.
INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS THE N
GULF FROM NE MEXICO TO CUBA AND INCLUDES E TEXAS...ALL OF
LOUISIANA...S MISSISSIPPI...S ALABAMA...AND MOST OF GEORGIA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAK FRONT DIPPING ACROSS THE N GULF
STARTING ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 19N W OF 73W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N
BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION REMAINS
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 70W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
REGION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA...1007 MB LOW...EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 32N69W AND A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED SE NEAR 28N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ANDREA ALONG 27N72W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ALTHOUGH
SMOKY CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT
CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COVERING THE REGION S OF 30N
E OF 76W...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF FT LAUDERDALE. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ALONG
24N55W TO 30N45W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W ATLC AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N FROM 53W TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF A LINE FROM 21N68W TO 24N82W TO INLAND OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND INCLUDES MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W S TO 15N30W.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W. DRY AIR COVERS
THE ATLC E OF 50W AND THE TROPICAL ATLC NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 23N E OF 53W...THUS
LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE




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