[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 5N34W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3S-12N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-30W. THE TROUGH THAT WAS EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ NEAR 30W HAS BECOME VERY ELONGATED AND IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN...AND CONVECTION HAS ALSO DIMINISHED AROUND THIS
FEATURE. HAVE THUS OPTED TO LEAVE THE TROUGH OFF THE MAP FOR NOW.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE W PORTION OF AN ATLC SFC RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA...STRONGEST IN THE WRN PORTION WHERE THE
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER IN RESPONSE TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO. LITTLE CLOUD COVER/FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MUCH OF THE
BASIN...THOUGH THE MOBILE RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTMS
MOVING N IN THE N GULF. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE NOTED FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 86W-89W. A BAND OF
UPPER MOISTURE IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY BETWEEN NE MEXICO AND
LOUISIANA...SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE WRN GULF FROM THE EPAC AND THE UPPER LOW OVER
SE KANSAS. UPPER TROUGHING AND FAIRLY DRY AIR IS OVER THE ERN
GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVING E FROM NEW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY IN THE NW GULF DURING THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE FLOW WITH TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PATCHES/ISOLATED SHOWERS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ARE ALLOWING THESE SHOWERS TO GET A LITTLE DEEPER IN THE NW
CARIB BETWEEN ERN HONDURAS AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION LIKELY TIED TO THE ITCZ IS IN THE SW CARIB S OF 13N
BETWEEN 76W-82W. UPPER MOISTURE OVER THIS AND OTHER EPAC ITCZ
CONVECTION IS SPREADING NE BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SE
BAHAMAS...WITH UPPER SW FLOW. UPPER FLOW BENDS MORE WLY IN THE
ERN CARIB AROUND RIDGING. SIMILAR TRADE WIND REGIME EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC...
A PAIR OF SFC TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WRN PORTION OF HIGH PRES
DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC WEATHER TODAY. THE FIRST IS OFFSHORE
FLORIDA ALONG 31N78W 26N79W. ASSOCATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 78W-80W. THE OTHER IS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N73W 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE AFFECTING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...SE BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 20N-27W BETWEEN
68W-76W. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON THIS TROUGH...AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. SEE
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE PAIR OF TROUGHS IN THE WRN ATLC ARE BEING SUPPORTED
BY LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ANOTHER REMNANT SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 31N51W
28N58W...GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 27N-31W BETWEEN
50W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRES...S OF A 1029MB CENTER S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N31W.
ANOTHER WEAK 1022MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS NEAR 30N63W...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE AZORES HIGH THROUGH THU.

$$
WILLIS




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