[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N15W 3N24W 4N40W 3N52W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 33W FROM 2S-6N.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 22W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 14W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING E OVER OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOUISIANA TO MISSOURI.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS ALONG THE TEXAS/
LOUISIANA COAST N OF 25N W OF 93W. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 27N86W TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO BUT NO
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE INTO THE NW GULF. SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO JUST ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1016
MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL N OF 18N W OF
83W. OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE W
ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N FROM HAITI NEAR 73W TO
OVER CUBA NEAR 82W. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD...FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 27N W OF 50W TO OVER NE FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N69W OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ALONG 79W FROM 24N-30N PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 30N76W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLC WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING THE
REMINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE


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