[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N17W 2N28W 3N43W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 3W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING NE OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND IS
GENERATING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE TEXAS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N96W TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS NARROWING WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA TO SE LOUISIANA. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE
GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA AS WELL WITH A 1018 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. THIS RIDGE COUPLED WITH
DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COAST DUE TO RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AN UPPER E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
ALONG 85W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A 1008 MB LOW INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND
TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE... DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 65W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND N
OF 17N E OF 75W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 53W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N54W ALONG 26N70W JUST E OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF HAITI PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E
OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N10W W ALONG 30N25W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 27N40W COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N. THIS UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR THAT DOMINATES MOST OF
THE ATLC AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE W BY A 1020 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N64W AND IN THE E BY A 1029 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING
MOST OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE





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