[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N15W 3N26W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 20W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 6N BETWEEN 5W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG UPPER LOW IS OVER N TEXAS IS GENERATING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER N/CENTRAL TEXAS AND A SECOND AREA MOVING S
ACROSS S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N-28N W OF 96W. THE
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF EXTENDS FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 88W. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC
EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AS WELL WITH A 1018 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS RIDGE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE TEXAS/
MEXICO COAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AN UPPER E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
20N83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO 13N85W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N FROM 81W-86W TO INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 79W-82W. OTHERWISE...
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 65W TO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND N OF 18N E OF 73W TO INCLUDE
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 55W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 31N58W ALONG 24N65W ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N76W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 60W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
NEAR 31N16W W ALONG 29N26W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 27N40W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N. THIS UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR THAT DOMINATES MOST OF
THE ATLC AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE W BY A 1021 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N65W AND IN THE E BY A 1032 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING
MOST OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE


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