[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
29W-37W THEN ALONG 2N47W 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS W OF 23W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W GULF N OF 21N W OF 91W GENERATING RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NW LOUISIANA. NARROW UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO/THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE GULF TO OVER THE FAR E US CONTINUING TO
ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 27N FROM 90W-95W.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
FROM THE NW ATLC OVER MUCH OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST W OF HAITI NEAR 19N74W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO NEAR 12N76W BRINGING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
12N76W ALONG 16N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 21N67W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM
60W-74W WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND
JAMAICA. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER
FLOW AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N E OF 71W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 75W
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W
OF 75W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING E OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 26N FROM 42W-72W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
27N52W TO 26N61W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 27N73W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE AREA WITHIN 225 NM
OF LINE 31N71W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NW OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDS FROM 21N67W THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N FROM 64W-73W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE COLD
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 4N39W COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC
AND THE E CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
REMAINING FROM 7N-20N E OF 25W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
PAW



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net