[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N20W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
31W-43W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150
NM OF THE AXIS E OF 15W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR FROM 28W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OVER W TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE W GULF N OF 23N W OF 95W GENERATING A SQUALL
LINE CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. NARROWING HIGH
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S
MEXICO AND THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO OVER
THE FAR E US CONTINUING TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 26N FROM 90W-95W. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE
TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E
OF 84W. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE NW ATLC OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF JAMAICA
NEAR 18N75W CONTINUING S TO NEAR 14N77W BRINGING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. A SURFACE
REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N73W
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 20N67W ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N FROM 66W-75W INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER E
CUBA AND JAMAICA. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE
AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N E
OF 74W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE N
OF 15N W OF 75W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
LIGHT/MODERATE SURFACE WINDS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W
OF 77W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N
FROM 45W-77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 27N54W TO NEAR 27N73W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN W OF 72W
WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NW OF FRONT. A PREFRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N52W TO 21N58W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDS FROM 25N70W S
ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE UPPER LOW E OF JAMAICA. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N
FROM 65W-74W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF
34W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC E OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH S OF THE
AZORES. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG 8W TO 25W AND A SECOND ANCHORED
BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 5N40W. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. LAST
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDING FROM
8N-21N TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
PAW


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