[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N19W 1N28W 1N50W. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-41W AND
FROM THE AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC
REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TO OVER THE E US CONTINUING TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE W GULF W OF 90W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
E OF 85W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER E CUBA/WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SE OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N76W
CONTINUING SW TO OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N82W BRINGING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF
77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N FROM 70W-78W
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...E CUBA  AND JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 14N FROM 60W-73W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF
55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N58W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 29N69W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA
NEAR 31N82W. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO
33N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45
NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 29N. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 25N75W SW ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE UPPER LOW SE OF
JAMAICA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN W OF THE
SW TROUGH AXIS AND N OF 27N. THE ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 29N55W S ALONG 22N61W THEN SW TO THE MONA
PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
24N FROM 65W-76W. AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS WITHIN
150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 25N47W TO 24N64W. GENERALLY UPPER
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN
10N-27N WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 29N26W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG
6W/7W TO 30W AND A SECOND ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N47W. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
PAW



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