[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N17W 2N27W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-40W AND FROM THE AXIS TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC
REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TO OVER THE E US CONTINUING TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE W GULF W OF 90W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER JAMAICA CONTINUING SW TO OFF
THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 13N82W BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 16N77W
TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA NEAR 20N72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF
60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE AREA ALONG 31N
FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO THE NE GEORGIA COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE W ATLC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
RETREATING SOUTHWARD EXTENDING FROM 26N69W SW ACROSS THE S
BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMAICA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR REMAIN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N58W SSW ALONG 23N63W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N
FROM 68W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N68W TO 25N49W. GENERALLY UPPER
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN
10N-27N WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 30N26W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH WSW OF THE AZORES. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG 6W/7W TO 35W AND A SECOND
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 6N48W. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
PAW


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