[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W EQ20W 1N30W EQ50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 7W-13W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 18W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N
BETWEEN 28W-33W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-6N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO.  NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO E OF
85W.  SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N AND W OF 93W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NWLY FLOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE NRN GULF N OF 24N MOVING E.  EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS AND NE
MEXICAN COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG 20N70W
18N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF
70W ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY
FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA.  EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TRADEWIND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 31N52W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.  A STRONG 1038 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 44N25W.  A
RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN
20W-50W PRODUCING STRONGER THAN NORMAL NE TO E SURFACE FLOW WITH
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE
EQUATOR AND E OF 40W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 30W.  EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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