[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 3N10W 2N39W 2N42W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE W GULF W OF 85W. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SURFACE E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
GULF WITH SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES TO TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE NW WITH MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR E
GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC
COVERS THE FAR N CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. OVERCAST LOW/MOD CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N FROM 70W-79W INCLUDING JAMAICA.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THAT AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED
LOW CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING MOST THE
AREA SW TO W UPPER FLOW. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N58W TO 23N69W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH TO OVER
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS N OF 24N AND OVER FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXTENDS FROM THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SW
THROUGH A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 33N70W TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE THE N GULF COAST STATES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 31N25W SW ALONG
23N31W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 14N38W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1038 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES
THROUGH 32N38W TO 12N50W. THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC AND
SECOND E/W RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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