[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N19W 4N33W ALONG THE EQUATOR
NEAR W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 3W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL OVER
THE W ATLC AND FAR E US COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SURFACE E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF WITH
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES TO TEXAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS ARE KEEPING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...OVERCAST LOW/MOD CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 69W-77W INCLUDING
JAMAICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE W OF A
LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W LEAVING THAT
AREA WITH ONLY SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N56W AND EXTENDS
NW ALONG 11N60W THEN N TO 22N60W. THIS CONTINUES TO PUMP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FAR E US AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 58W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N56W ALONG 26N62W TO 24N66W WHERE
IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST N OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W.
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH TO OVER
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH ONLY
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR 34N72W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT
AND INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 31N15W SW ALONG
24N30W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 16N42W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1042 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
AZORES THROUGH 32N37W TO 13N48W. THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND SECOND E/W RIDGE
ANCHORED INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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