[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N30W EQ38W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 13W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27N-36W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FIRING UP
ALONG THE NE BRAZIL COAST FROM 3S-EQ W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SW PORTION OF A 1033 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC IS DOMINATING THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-25 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
MODERATE E/SELY WIND WAVES. SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS EXIST
OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 85W. CLEAR SKIES EXIST E OF 85W/W OF
FLORIDA WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. ALOFT...FLOW
IS GENERALLY WNW TO NW AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING N
THROUGH WRN TEXAS. THIS IS ADVECTING PATCHES OF UPPER MOISTURE
INTO THE NW GULF...NW OF A TAMPICO TO PANAMA CITY FL LINE. DRY
MID TO UPPER AIR EXISTS SE OF THAT LINE. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THIS IS PRODUCING BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IN THE AREA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY
15-25 KT NE/E TRADES EXIST ELSEWHERE...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED
REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NE PORTION N
OF 14N E OF 68W. ALOFT...WIDESPREAD WSW/SW FLOW DOMINATES ON THE
NW PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE BASIN FROM NE
SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDS NE THROUGH THE ERN
CARIB AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. MOSTLY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR EXISTS
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC...
SFC HI PRES AND FRESH NELY WINDS DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC BEHIND
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W AND
CONTINUES SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING EXTENDING SSE FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
NEAR THE FRONT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGING...S OF A 1046 MB CENTER N OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N29W. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG TRADES AND FAIR
WEATHER E OF 55W. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE
A MID TO UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION. THIS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS...N OF 26N BETWEEN 16W-23W. GFS SUGGESTS THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIP FOR THE AREA NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. OTHERWISE STRONG
SFC HI PRES RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE ERN AND WRN ATLC AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH'S
SUPPORTING A LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL.


$$
WILLIS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net