[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141016
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N16W 2N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-40W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW
GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W ENHANCING THE HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N94W TO INLAND OVER
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW UPPER WINDS. THIS ALSO CONTINUES TO
ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE S GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR E GULF WHERE STRONGER WINDS PREVAIL. BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE S GULF...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS TO OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH TWO UPPER RIDGES DOMINATING MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA TO OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECOND
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE THE W TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE
TROPICS ARE GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTTING THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN AND COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N FROM 47W-75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N49W TO A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 31N51W CONTINUING S TO 23N56W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH S TO
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT/LOW WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N70W
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE AREA W OF THE ABOVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS ARE LEAVING THE AREA W OF THE FRONT/TROUGH MOSTLY CLOUD
AND SHOWER FREE. ALSO EMBEDDED BENEATH THE UPPER FLOW IS A
DEVELOPING 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
E ATLC COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N17W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
TO 24N19W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN 22W-45W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE AZORES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER RATHER
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS KEEPING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC QUIET AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE



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