[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140500
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N17W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 4W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW
GULF N OF 26NW OF 93W ENHANCING THE HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
OVER CUBA AND ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF SW UPPER WINDS. THIS ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE S GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR E GULF WHERE STRONGER WINDS PREVAIL. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE GULF...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS TO OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH TWO UPPER RIDGES DOMINATING MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA TO OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECOND
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
INTO THE THE W TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE
TROPICS ARE GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTTING THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN AND COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N FROM 48W-77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N51W TO A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 30N51W CONTINUING S TO 25N55W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH S TO
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT/LOW WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE
W ATLC NEAR 34N71W COVERING THE AREA W OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
COMBINED WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE
LEAVING THE AREA W OF THE FRONT/TROUGH MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE E ATLC COVERS THE AREA N OF
19N E OF 35W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING S
TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE 1011 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N16W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST TO 24N16W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN
20W-45W ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL NE OF THE AZORES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR
AT ALL LEVELS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC QUIET AGAIN
TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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