[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W 4N31W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER W CUBA TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE W GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER E NEW MEXICO/W
TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 92W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E US INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
VENEZUELA ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE
CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE WITH VIRTUALLY NO SHOWERS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES
IN THE TROPICS ARE GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE FAR E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 62W-67W INCLUDING THE N LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N
FROM 48W-80W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH 32N51W TO A RECENT DEVELOPED 1016 MB LOW NEAR
26N57W AND A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING S TO TO THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS
BUILDING E OVER THE W ATLC WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE REGION N OF 20N E
OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
MADEIRA ISLANDS TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 25N18W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH N OF THE
AZORES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC QUIET
AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE





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