[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130455
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N21W 2N31W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM FROM 48W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER W CUBA TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE W GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN INLAND OVER TEXAS AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER...A SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 91W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E US INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
VENEZUELA ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE LEAVING THE
CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE WITH VIRTUALLY NO SHOWERS. THE
EXCEPTION IS FROM OVER HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE W ATLC EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE MONA PASSAGE/PUERTO
RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W TO OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 48W-80W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N54W TO THE MONA PASSAGE/PUERTO
RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-30N W OF 51W TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE REGION N OF
20N E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA WITH A SURFACE 1017 MB LOW
JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER
RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS KEEPING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE




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