[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF 3N WEST OF 30W...EXTENDING TO THE
BRAZILIAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXPANSIVE CUT-OFF DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS
PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE CONTINENTAL US...WHICH IS IN TURN CAUSING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CORE SPEEDS OF 150-180
KT IS SCREAMING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A STATIONARY FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
SWWD TO 20N92W. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS IS INDICATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. AT 03Z...WEAK
1014 MB HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED OVER
THE GULF...JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND ALSO ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST NEAR TAMPICO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT UNTIL A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NEW MEXICO
GIVES THE BOUNDARY A SECOND PUSH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SE OF THE GULF WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS
TO GALE FORCE OVER THE SW GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

CARIBBEAN...

A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N/19N STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO EXTREME SE MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THEN SW ACROSS COSTA
RICA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING NW TOWARDS PUERTO
RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLANDS AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS AREA IS COVERED BY AN
AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TRANSITIONING INTO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALONG 62W...WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING EWD FROM FLORIDA TO 60W.
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO
19N57W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG 32N39W 28N50W
28N58W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADES ALONG 52W FROM 13N TO 21N...MAINLY AS A PRESSURE
PERTURBATION BUT ALSO SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SLIGHT TURNING IN
THE CUMULUS FIELD.

OVER THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A 1027
MB HIGH CENTERED JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH THE AXIS
STRETCHING SW TO 26N40W. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 14N40W IN THE TROPICS NE TO MADEIRA ISLAND THEN EWD
INTO NORTHERN MOROCCO. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING
ACROSS W AFRICA OR THE E ATLC WATERS.

$$
GR/HC








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